100th Poststravaganza – An examination of previous recommendations

January 10, 2011

So, my loyal readers who have been keeping count will know that this to be my 100th post. I thought I would celebrate this exciting occasion with a review of how some of my recommendations have worked out. I know hindsight makes everything look more certain than it was, but it is definitely a useful […]

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Supervalu: Speculating in a grocery store with indigestion

December 22, 2010

I find very often that I seem to be the one who is interested in the investments I’m interested in. Certainly that is true of the River Rock and Mohegan casino bonds, where I seem to be the only person on the Internet who has even considered their investing attributes. So, when I find people […]

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A review of James Montier’s Behavioural Investing, pub. by Wiley

December 12, 2010

Behavioural Investing by James Montier is a weighty book with much to tell us about an aspect of investing that has long been overlooked. Behavioral investing, of course, is basically determining why market participants do not act in a manner consistent with the fancy equations of the financial economists, as they frequently don’t. Of course, […]

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They won’t buy Seagate, but I won’t sell it

November 30, 2010

It appears that Seagate (STX) will not be taken over after all, as it has rebuffed its buyers for not meeting their price. The stock price seems to have taken this development in stride, dropoping only 3.25% today. However, the market’s incurable impatience had already caused the price to drift down from the $15 level […]

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Where is the Money? The Short Case for Netsuite

November 23, 2010

Netsuite is a company that produces an integrated suite of business applications for medium sized businesses. Within this core area they also produce industry-specific applications, and also a platform that allows for customer-driven development. The company was born in 1998 and seems to have brought some of that era’s valuation with it, as the company […]

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Good News: China’s a Bubble

November 19, 2010

Hugh Hendry, the hedge fund manager and inflation skeptic whose views I have always found informative and interesting, sat on a panel at a conference last February called the Russia Forum. I finally found footage of the full panel. On the whole, he was his usual opinionated self, but he did shed some light on […]

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Why I sold Qwest

November 10, 2010

As you may have noticed, the stock market has been doing very well over the last few months, and even my staid old telecoms have been caught in the updraft despite (or perhaps because of) the high dividend payouts. As the entire market now seems to be looking for yields now that cash and most […]

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River Rock Gaming Authority Bonds are a Good Bet

November 3, 2010

I am pleased to report that my habit of finding investment opportunities that come in pairs is running true to form. I recently recommended the bonds of the Mohegan Tribal Gaming Authority, and now I can follow it up with the bonds of the River Rock Entertainment Authority, which runs a casino in Sonoma County, […]

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Look for the right short candidates (like Crown Castle)

October 26, 2010

I was involved in a conversation recently about short selling, where the old adage was trotted out that a stock can rise to infinity but only drop to zero, which is said to illustrate that short selling is more risky than investing on the long side. Although this is technically true, its impact on the […]

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Treasury earns 4% a year on TARP investments; I am unimpressed

October 20, 2010

I read in the news today that on the second anniversary of TARP, the government has earned 8.2% on its investments in banks and insurance companies, which comes to about 4% a year. The article claims that many investors expected the deal to have losses running into the billions, which I suppose is true, but […]

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